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When
I became editor of Wireds New Economy pages, I did
a bit of research to see if I could discover where the phrase
itself came from. Turns out there was a New Economy in the sixties,
too when there was also a bull market. For the Wired Index
of 40-plus companies that represent the New Economy, we defined
the fundamental qualities of the New Economy as globalism, communication,
innovation, technology, and strategic vision. These echoed and
elaborated on the themes of internationalism, free markets, and
informa tion
central to the sixties version, as well as Alvin and Heidi Tofflers
The Third Wave. Plus ça change, plus ça la
meme chose: in the sixties, the French were having none of this
intra-occidental "neo-colonialism," and one Frenchman,
Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, deemed the new economics "le
capitalism sauvage" savage capitalism.
If
you believe my old colleague Pete Leyden and futurist Peter Schwartz,
however, the New Economy, or "Long Boom," really got
underway with Ronald Reagans first administration. Under
the tutelage of techno-evangelist George Gilder, Reagan got New
Economy religion early. Heres the Gipper, circa 1986: "In
the new economy, human invention increasingly makes physical resources
obsolete. Even as we explore the most advanced reaches of science,
were returning to the age-old wisdom of our culture.
In the beginning was the spirit, and it was form this spirit that
the material abundance of creation issues forth." MIT economist
Paul Krugman doesnt put it in quite such glowing terms.
He told Kevin Kelly of Wired that sure enough, technology
human invention has been the big story in economics
since the 1950s, but is also "invoked as an explanation of
whatever we cant explain in other ways."
Yet
if there is one moment that defines the New Economy, it came,
I agree with author Michael Lewis, on August 10, 1995. This was
the day Jim Clark took Netscape public, well before that company
(since crushed by Microsoft and bought by AOL), ever made a dime.
As Lewis writes in The New New Thing, Clark made this bold
move because he needed cash for his high-tech sailboat, The
Hyperion. But the result, as Lewis also notes, changed the
world of finance. After that day, "the most appealing companies
became those in a state of pure possibility. Which is to say that
the U.S. capital markets acquired the personal predilection of
Jim Clark
The Internet formula for success turned traditional
capitalism on its head. Traditionally, a company persuaded people
to invest in it by making profits. Now it persuaded people to
invest in it first, and hoped profits would follow."
A
second paragon of pure possibility Lewis identified in a column
for the New York Observer remains one of my high-water
marks for the Digital Revolution. The February 7 column concerned
a company called NetJ.com. Like a number of failed Australian
mining companies which have, without changing their corporate
status, made themselves over as dot-coms to better sell their
stock, NetJ.com had no real business as a dot-com. In fact, NetJ.com
had no business whatsoever not that this niggling fact
kept its stock from increasing seven-fold in late 1999, early
2000.
Assuming
the Bloomberg machine was mistaken about NetJ conducting no business
whatsoever, Lewis writes, "I went to the documents filed
by NetJ.com with the Security and Exchange Commission. There I
found the following confession: The company is not currently
engaged in any substantial business activity and has no plans
to engage in any such activity in the foreseeable future."
Laughable
as it seems, Lewis notes that NetJ.com does what most Internet
companies do: raise capital and make up the business as they go
along. "That is the beauty of NetJ.com," he observes.
"By doing nothing, it has avoided ruling out the possibility
of not doing something else."
To
some, including me in a certain mood, a company that has no business
and no intention of doing business, but still has a multi-million
dollar market cap, exemplifies the promise of the Digital Revolution.
Wealth from virtual reality. There are days when Im too
amused to be disgusted; when I think, why not? Wish Id thought
of that!
But
there are nervous nights, too, when I seem to recall expecting
something else of the Digital Revolution than the ultimate shell
game. Nights when I feel like some old hippie lost in the "time
fog" of those days on the panhandle remembering the
promise of something different from what followed. Nostalgia,
after all, is the most beguiling form of hype.
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